CSRDA Discussion Paper Series

No. 64 Effects of the pandemic on job creation in Japan
Keisuke Kawata
Keisuke Kawata University of Tokyo
Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the job creation process through the mechanism of public employment services. The labor market is one of the main concerns in academic and policy research. The increase in health risks from commuting and engaging in face-to-face contact may have reduced the supply of labor. The decline in social activity may also have exerted negative impacts on demand for labor. Furthermore, the impact of infectious diseases and related policy reactions may have had a significant impact on the labor market. Meanwhile, COVID-19 may have increased the labor demand in some sectors because new jobs may have been created in response to changes in the social and economic environment. For example, the increase in home consumption could have increased the demand for home delivery services, resulting in increased employment in the industry. In this paper, an interrupted time series analysis (Menchetti, Cipollini, and Mealli 2022) and job vacancy-seekers time series data are applied. This approach enables us to estimate the causal effect of an event in time-series data. In addition to the counterfactual, we estimate the impacts on labor market surplus through use of the sufficient statistics approach (Kawata and Sato 2021).