CSRDA Discussion Paper Series

No. 90 Decomposing Delayed Marriage and Parenthood across Cohorts: The Role of Increased Precarious Employment among Men in Japan
Ryota Mugiyama
https://orcid.org/
0000-0002-6157-5575
Ryota MugiyamaGakushuin University
delayed marriagedelayed parenthoodprecarious employmentcohortJapan
Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic GrowthGoal 10: Reduced Inequalities
Social Stratification and Mobility Survey, 2015

Background: Increases in precarious employment, such as nonstandard employment and unemployment, are arguably linked to delayed family formation in many countries. While previous research has shown the negative associations between exposure to precarious employment and entry into marriage and parenthood, few studies have examined how increased exposure to precarious employment contributes to delayed marriage or parenthood across cohorts. Objective: This study examined the extent to which cross-cohort changes in employment status and work experience account for delayed marriage and parenthood among men born between 1945 and 1984 in Japan. Methods: Using nationally representative retrospective survey data from Japan, discrete-time hazard models to predict transitions to marriage and parenthood are employed. Results: The significant shifts in marriage and parenthood entry rates, as well as never-married and childless rates, are attributable to changes in employment-related factors. Counterfactual estimates indicated that between the earliest and latest cohorts, 23% of the decline in the marriage entry rate and 28% of the increase in the never-married rate at age 30 were explained by changes in employment-related factors. This figure was 34% for the parenthood entry rate and 39% for the childless rate at age 30. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that increased precarious employment has contributed to delayed marriage and parenthood across cohorts for men in Japan. Contribution: This study provides evidence of the direct link between cross-cohort delays in family formation and increased exposure to precarious employment, which corroborates the arguments regarding employment uncertainty.