CSRDA Discussion Paper Series

No. 98 The Increasing Importance of Changes in Nuptiality: Policy Mismatch and Fertility Decline in Low-Fertility East Asian Societies
Jolene Tan, Qi Cui, Fumiya Uchikoshi
Jolene TanPrinceton University
Qi CuiLondon School of Economics and Political Science
marriagenuptialitylow fertilitydecomposition analysis,East Asia
Goal 5: Gender EqualityGoal 10: Reduced Inequalities
United Nations Population Division

Despite the strong relationship between marriage and childbearing, existing policies aimed at supporting parenthood often prioritize parity progression within married couples while overlooking a concurrent yet increasingly significant trend: the rising prevalence of delayed marriage and nonmarriage. This study focuses on four low-fertility East Asian societies: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore. In these societies, changes in nuptiality play an important role in fertility change, and a variety of population policies have been implemented in response to the “lowest-low” fertility rates of these societies. Against this background, we first review existing policy efforts to mitigate declining fertility, arguing that these pronatalist policies are mistargeted. We then examine the extent to which the decrease in fertility is attributable to changes in marital fertility versus shifts in nuptiality. We conduct a decomposition analysis of fertility trends in these four low-fertility societies using data from the United Nations Population Division. We find that while the decline in marital fertility played a dominant role during the initial stages of the fertility transition, contemporary patterns highlight nuptiality as the primary driver of declining fertility rates. These findings underscore the importance of the rising prevalence of singlehood and the potential, albeit modest, increase in diverse family forms, both of which have received scant attention in policy discourse.